The National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections, according to the first parliamentary seat projection released by Global InfoAnalytics.
The research organisation’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model projects the NDC to secure 154 seats in the next election, down from the 185 seats it won in the 2024 parliamentary elections.
The projection represents a potential 29-seat reduction in the party’s parliamentary representation, although it would still leave the NDC with a majority in the 276-member Parliament.
The New Patriotic Party (NPP), meanwhile, is projected to increase its representation to 100 seats from the 88 it won in 2024, representing a potential gain of 12 seats.
The model leaves 22 constituencies unresolved, with 20 classified as “not disclosed” and two as toss-ups.
The regional breakdown shows that the Eastern Region has the highest number of undisclosed seats, with five, followed by the Ashanti Region with four. The Western Region has three, while the Upper East has two.
Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono each have one undisclosed seat.
The two toss-up constituencies are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
The projections give the NDC 55.8 per cent of the total parliamentary seats and the NPP 36.2 per cent, while the 20 undisclosed seats account for 7.2 per cent and the two toss-ups represent 0.7 per cent.
The figures suggest a narrower parliamentary majority for the governing NDC in 2028 if the model’s projections materialise.
However, the 29-seat potential loss should be treated as a projection rather than a prediction of the final election outcome. Global InfoAnalytics has not disclosed the projected party preferences for the 20 constituencies, while the two toss-up seats remain uncertain.
