Africa Policy Lens (APL) has released the results of its final opinion poll ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primaries, showing former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in a clear lead following nationwide engagements by the aspirants.
The poll, sponsored and conducted by APL as part of its public opinion research work, was carried out between December 8, 2025 and January 23, 2026.
Data was collected through telephone interviews conducted by 12 trained field assistants using APL’s call centre in Accra. A total of 9,122 respondents across all 276 constituencies participated in the survey, giving the poll a margin of error of ±2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
According to the findings, nearly all respondents, about 99 percent, were polling station executives, with a small fraction made up of constituency executives, electoral area coordinators and other party officials.
More than three-quarters of respondents were male, while females accounted for about 24 percent. The largest age group fell between 36 and 45 years, followed by those aged 25 to 35.
The poll also showed that three of the five presidential aspirants had visited almost all constituencies. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, and Bryan Acheampong recorded constituency visit rates above 80 percent.
About 92 percent of respondents said they were physically present during the visits of the aspirants, while a small number followed the campaigns through the media or social media.
On message delivery, respondents rated Dr. Bawumia as the most clear and convincing, with nearly 70 percent saying his message made the strongest impression. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong followed with just over 48 percent, while Bryan Acheampong recorded about 41 percent. A smaller proportion said none of the candidates’ messages stood out to them.
Respondents said the aspirants addressed party unity and reconciliation, as well as support for grassroots members and delegates, more effectively than other campaign themes. Issues such as strategies for winning national elections and internal party reforms received comparatively lower ratings.
A comparison of voter preferences before and after the constituency visits showed a noticeable shift in support. Dr. Bawumia’s support rose from about 54 percent before the visits to 61 percent after the engagements. Support for Bryan Acheampong increased modestly, while Kennedy Ohene Agyapong saw a slight dip. The number of undecided respondents dropped significantly after the visits.
APL said the findings suggest that direct engagement with delegates played a key role in shaping voter preferences ahead of the NPP presidential primaries.
The research was led by APL President, Dr. George Domfe, with Dr. Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa serving as Director of Research, Administration and Partnerships.
